O Ciclone Tropical Funso (08S), agora com o centro localizado em 18.3S 39.3E, tem vindo a evoluir de acordo com as previsões iniciais, estando agora classificado como de Categoria 3, com ventos de 100 nós e rajadas de 125 nós na região central, deslocando-se no sentido SE para o centro do Canal de Moçambique, onde poderá vir a aumentar de intensidade para Categoria 4 até amanhã, 24JAN2012. O ciclone continuará a evoluir para sul, recurvando para sudoeste nas próximas 48 horas, perdendo intensidade.
Abaixo insiro a foto de satélite relativa às 09.00 UTC de 23JAN2012 da Weather Underground e a respectiva previsão a 5 dias e Aviso Público.
Ciclone Funso sobre o Canal de Moçambique às 09:00 de 23JAN2012
Previsão para os próximos 5 dias (retirado de Weather Underground)
Aviso Público (Weather Underground)
remarks: 230900z position near 18.5s 39.4e. Tropical cyclone (tc) 08s,
located approximately 590 nm northeast of Maputo, Mozambique,
has tracked southeastward at 03 knots over the past six hours.
Animated infrared satellite imagery reveals that tc 08s continues
to improve its organizational structure with a cloud filled eye
and increasing symmetry as the system moves away from the African
continent. A 230230z ssmis image reveals the inner core has tightly
curved banding and deep convection consolidating around the low
level circulation center (LLCC) with vigorous convection extending
eastward to near the coast of Madagascar. Upper level analysis indicates
that tc 08s has favorable conditions for continued intensification with
minimal vertical wind shear (vws) values of 5 knots or less and excellent
radial outflow depicted in animated water vapor satellite imagery.
Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the Mozambique Channel are
between 28 to 29 degrees celsius. The current position is based on the SSMI
image and fixes on the infrared eye with good confidence. The current
intensity is now assessed at 100 knots based on pgtw and fmee Dvorak current
intensity estimates. Tc 08s is forecast to initially track southward, then
turn more southwesterly after tau 48 as the subtropical ridge (str) to the
south becomes the more dominant steering mechanism. Due to the complex
and competing steering mechanisms, tc 08s is forecast to slow down in
the extended Taus. The latest numerical model guidance is split on the
track solution. Ukmo and ECMWF indicate a slow cyclonically curved track
with possible recurvature beyond the current forecast period, while
NOGAPS, GFDN and WBAR indicate a faster and more southerly track that
quickly recurves the storm into the midlatitude westerlies. Finally
the GFS is similar to the ECMWF/UKMET solution. Although GFS unrealistically
turns the storm more southwestward towards Mozambique in the early Taus,
it is more in agreement with the European model solutions overall.
The models indicating a fast recurve scenario forecast a strong trough to
move through around tau 48 whereas the slow scenario solutions forecast
a weaker, negatively tilted trough which has little impact on the str
allowing tc 08s to continue tracking towards the coast. The later
philosophy is more in line with current observations. The long range
probabilistic ensemble models indicate that recurvature is still a
possibility beyond the current forecast range. This forecast is biased
toward the ecwmf /UKMET /AVN solutions and departs from consensus after
tau 48. Maximum significant wave height at 230600z is 34 feet. Next
warnings at 232100z and 240900z. //
De acordo com as imagens e a previsão para os próximos 5 dias, o centro do ciclone manter-se-á sobre o mar, mas a sua influência far-se-á sentir em toda a faixa costeira, pelo menos com a intensidade de uma depressão tropical.
Para actualização da informação e melhor aviso, recomendo a página do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, a própria Weather Underground, a Tropical Storm Risk (que tem um serviço grátis de alerta por e-mail) e a HurricaneZone.net.
