Ciclone Tropical Funso (08S): 25JAN2012

O Ciclone Tropical Funso encontra-se ao largo do Arquipélago do Bazaruto, na região central do Canal de Moçambique e deverá continuar a sua trajectória em direcção sudeste, perdendo intensidade e não devendo haver mais impactos directos sobre a faixa costeira do sul de Moçambique. Abaixo insiro as últimas imagens de satélite, previsão para os próximos 5 dias e Aviso Público da Weather Underground. Esta é a minha última inserção de aviso público, a menos que se venham a prever novos impactos para a costa de Moçambique.

A imagem de satélite (from Weather Underground)

A previsão para os próximos 5 dias (from Weather Underground)

 

O Aviso Público (from Weather Underground)

remarks:
250900z position near 22.8s 38.7e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 08s (funso), located approximately 385 nm east-
northeast of Maputo, Mozambique, has tracked south-southwestward at
04 knots over the past 06 hours. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery (msi) shows the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle
with a 15 nm eye. A 250338z ssmis 91ghz image depicts the eyewall
weakening on the southeastern quadrant, however msi is showing
improvement of the eyewall over the past 03 hours. The current
position is based on a well defined eye in msi. Intensity is based
on Dvorak estimates from pgtw indicating 120 knots. Upper level
analysis shows a self-induced meso-anticyclone over the low level
circulation center (LLCC) providing ample outflow aloft while
maintaining low vertical wind shear. Animated water vapor imagery
shows a weakening poleward outflow over the past 12 hours with a
region of upper level subsidence and the loss of outflow into
troughing located southeast of tc 08s. Radial outflow appears to be
improving along the equatorward outflow channel. Tc 08s continues to
track southwards under the influence of a north-south orientated
subtropical ridge to the east. Sea surface temperatures and ocean
heat content remain highly favorable until tc 08s reaches about 25
degrees south latitude. Model guidance continues to show a south-
southeastward track through tau 120. Increasing interaction with mid-
latitude westerlies will start extra-tropical transition around tau
96 and will be completed by tau 120. This forecast is consistent
with the consensus of available model guidance in the initial 36
hours but increases track speed in later Taus to be more
representative of a system undergoing extra-tropical transition.
Maximum significant wave height at 250600z is 32 feet.
Next warnings at 252100z and 260900z.//

Com uma referência especial à Weather Underground por permitir a partilha da sua informação.

Ciclone Tropical Funso (o8S): actualização 23JAN2012

O Ciclone Tropical Funso (08S), agora com o centro localizado em 18.3S 39.3E, tem vindo a evoluir de acordo com as previsões iniciais, estando agora classificado como de Categoria 3, com ventos de 100 nós e rajadas de 125 nós na região central, deslocando-se no sentido SE para o centro do Canal de Moçambique, onde poderá vir a aumentar de intensidade para Categoria 4 até amanhã, 24JAN2012. O ciclone continuará a evoluir para sul, recurvando para sudoeste nas próximas 48 horas, perdendo intensidade.

Abaixo insiro a foto de satélite relativa às 09.00 UTC de 23JAN2012 da Weather Underground e a respectiva previsão a 5 dias e Aviso Público.

Ciclone Funso sobre o Canal de Moçambique às 09:00 de 23JAN2012

Previsão para os próximos 5 dias (retirado de Weather Underground)

Aviso Público (Weather Underground)
remarks: 230900z position near 18.5s 39.4e. Tropical cyclone (tc) 08s,
located approximately 590 nm northeast of Maputo, Mozambique,
has tracked southeastward at 03 knots over the past six hours.
Animated infrared satellite imagery reveals that tc 08s continues
to improve its organizational structure with a cloud filled eye
and increasing symmetry as the system moves away from the African
continent. A 230230z ssmis image reveals the inner core has tightly
curved banding and deep convection consolidating around the low
level circulation center (LLCC) with vigorous convection extending
eastward to near the coast of Madagascar. Upper level analysis indicates
that tc 08s has favorable conditions for continued intensification with
minimal vertical wind shear (vws) values of 5 knots or less and excellent
radial outflow depicted in animated water vapor satellite imagery.
Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the Mozambique Channel are
between 28 to 29 degrees celsius. The current position is based on the SSMI
image and fixes on the infrared eye with good confidence. The current
intensity is now assessed at 100 knots based on pgtw and fmee Dvorak current
intensity estimates. Tc 08s is forecast to initially track southward, then
turn more southwesterly after tau 48 as the subtropical ridge (str) to the
south becomes the more dominant steering mechanism. Due to the complex
and competing steering mechanisms, tc 08s is forecast to slow down in
the extended Taus. The latest numerical model guidance is split on the
track solution. Ukmo and ECMWF indicate a slow cyclonically curved track
with possible recurvature beyond the current forecast period, while
NOGAPS, GFDN and WBAR indicate a faster and more southerly track that
quickly recurves the storm into the midlatitude westerlies. Finally
the GFS is similar to the ECMWF/UKMET solution. Although GFS unrealistically
turns the storm more southwestward towards Mozambique in the early Taus,
it is more in agreement with the European model solutions overall.
The models indicating a fast recurve scenario forecast a strong trough to
move through around tau 48 whereas the slow scenario solutions forecast
a weaker, negatively tilted trough which has little impact on the str
allowing tc 08s to continue tracking towards the coast. The later
philosophy is more in line with current observations. The long range
probabilistic ensemble models indicate that recurvature is still a
possibility beyond the current forecast range. This forecast is biased
toward the ecwmf /UKMET /AVN solutions and departs from consensus after
tau 48. Maximum significant wave height at 230600z is 34 feet. Next
warnings at 232100z and 240900z. //

De acordo com as imagens e a previsão para os próximos 5 dias, o centro do ciclone manter-se-á sobre o mar, mas a sua influência far-se-á sentir em toda a faixa costeira, pelo menos com a intensidade de uma depressão tropical.
Para actualização da informação e melhor aviso, recomendo a página do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, a própria Weather Underground, a Tropical Storm Risk (que tem um serviço grátis de alerta por e-mail) e a HurricaneZone.net.

Ciclone Tropical FUNSO (08S) (actualização 21JAN2012)

O ciclone tropical Funso (08S) encontra-se agora ao largo (25 milhas náuticas) da costa da Zambézia, sensivelmente à latitude de Quelimane e desenvolveu um olho com cerca de 8 milhas náuticas de diâmetro. Prevê-se que volte ao Canal, onde aumentará de intensidade. O ciclone deverá evoluir para sudeste (direcção a Madagáscar) antes de retomar uma trajectória de aproximação da costa de Moçambique, podendo vir a atingir a costa de Inhambane nos próximos dias. Insiro abaixo a imagem de satélite retirada da Weather Underground e relativa às 11:34 horas locais (09:34 UTC) de 21JAN2012.

Imagem de Satélite, 21JAN2012, 11:34 locais.

Abaixo transcrevo o Aviso Público relativo às 09:00 TUC (hora universal coordenada), retirado igualmente da Weather Underground (Public Advisory).
remarks:
210900z position near 18.0s 37.8e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 08s, located approximately 555 nm north-northeast of Maputo, Mozambique,
has tracked northwestward at 01 knot over the past 06 hours. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery indicates that tc 08s has undergone rapid intensification over the past six hours
and now has a well defined 8 nm diameter eye. Despite its proximity to the African continent
(approximately 25 nm), land interaction is having minimal impact. Additionally, as tc 08s tracks
southeastward back over the open waters of the Mozambique Channel, it is expected to further
intensify slightly, peaking at 115 knots. A 210501z ssmis 91ghz image depicts tightly-curved banding
and vigorous eyewall convection. The current intensity is based on agency Dvorak estimates
of 102 knots. Tc 08s is embedded within a weak, yet complex steering environment and has been
quasi-stationary as it is constrained by subtropical ridges (str) positioned to the east and
poleward. The recent 500mb analysis continues to show a weak trough moving eastward over south
Africa. As the str to the south weakens with the approach of the upper-level trough, tc 08s
is forecast to slowly track southeastward under the steering influence of the eastern str,
which is expected to build over Madagascar after tau 24 now that tc 07s (ethel) has begun
to re-curve away from the region. The upper-level trough is forecast to rapidly propagate
eastward, and is not expected to deepen enough to provide a re-curve mechanism for tc 08s.
Following the trough passage, the str should re-build south of the system in the extended Taus.
In turn, this should provide a westward steering influence back toward Mozambique, however
the track is expected to remain slow in this weak environment with several competing factors.
Despite the forecast complexity, numerical model guidance is in fair agreement with this
scenario, however the NOGAPS and GFS models suggest another stronger trough may start to
move through at the end of the forecast period and prevent tc 08s from making landfall.
This forecast is in-line with the model consensus. Maximum significant wave height at
210600z is 21 feet. Next warnings at 212100z and 220900z. Refer to tropical cyclone 07s
(ethel) warnings (wtxs31 pgtw) for twelve-hourly updates.
//

Abaixo insiro igualmente a projecção para os próximos 5 dias, da mesma fonte.

Evolução possível do sistema nos próximos 5 dias.

Siga os Avisos Públicos do INAM e de outros sites internacionais. Recomendo Weather Underground.